Reform UK is set to make a major statement in the upcoming local elections, standing more council candidates than Labour and the Conservatives, despite having a fraction of their resources.
The insurgent party is standing 1,630 candidates (99.3% of seats), 35 more than the Conservatives’ 1,595 candidates (97.2%) and 88 more than Labour’s 1,542 nominees (94.0%).
The data, confirmed by the publication of the official Statement of Persons Nominated (SOPN), has drawn the attention of election guru and veteran forecaster Ben Walker.
“I cannot emphasise enough how a supposedly fringe party standing in almost every seat is not normal stuff. It’s impressive,” said Walker, who is also a Labour councillor in Chester.
“Ukip had an incapacity for organisation. A shoestring, bubble-gum around the wire approach to campaigns dogged its rise all the way.
“However hard the party moved to professionalise, at one point employing a handful of bored kids in North Wales to sift through and reject (or not) racist candidates, it was still found to fall at the first hurdle.
“Which makes the SOPN findings of the week just gone all the more stark,” the analyst added.
Walker then highlighted data revealing where Reform UK is standing its candidates compared to other parties.
In the north of England, Farage’s party is standing 305 candidates, the second most and just one less than Labour’s 306. That’s 41 more than the Tories and 124 more than the Lib Dems.
In the midlands, the Tories and Reform are tied for most candidates, while in the South and East of England, the Tories lead narrowly.
Responding, Walker outlined how Reform is set to challenge all parties, whilst highlighting the Tories’ lack of candidates in the north.
“In essence, it’s Reform vs. the rest of them,” said Walker. “A Reform candidate guaranteed on almost every ballot paper. Something neither Lab or the Cons can as confidently claim.
“The Lib Dems are putting in an equally competitive performance in the South and East of England. Whereas the Greens aren’t doing quite so well at finding candidates as previous.
“In 2023 they could only stand in 55 per cent of the wards up. In 2024 that number had risen to an impressive 74 per cent. But this year it’s fallen back to 72 per cent.
“The notable underperformance of the Cons putting up candidates in the North should arrest anyone of the view the local associations, still smarting from their defeat, are anywhere close to mounting a serious organised recovery,” said the guru.
The analysis comes ahead of the most hotly contested May elections in recent memory as all eyes look to Reform UK to see if they can convert dominant nationwide polling into electoral results.
The elections will also be the first for the Tories in Kemi Badenoch’s tenure and Labour with Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.
LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:
Since July 2024, the Labour premier’s leadership has been marked by significant losses.
Starmer’s party has suffered a net loss of 40 seats since July, with the Tories up 24 seats.
Reform UK, for all their dominant polling and headlines, has only won 13 seats (up 13) inviting criticism that they shout the loudest but aren’t producing results.
The party has enjoyed a large vote share increase of 9.3 per cent, however, indicating multiple second and third places, pointless in First Past The Post, winner takes all contests.
A total of 1,641 councillors will be elected in May to 23 authorities including 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities, and one metropolitan borough.
Of these 23 authorities, 15 are being defended by the Conservative Party compared to just one for Labour, whilst seven councils are under no overall control (NOC).
Of these seven, four are run by Conservative minority administrations, two by Liberal Democrats, and one by Independents.
Nine authorities have cancelled their elections ahead of a shakeup of local government.
Find Out More...
The insurgent party is standing 1,630 candidates (99.3% of seats), 35 more than the Conservatives’ 1,595 candidates (97.2%) and 88 more than Labour’s 1,542 nominees (94.0%).
The data, confirmed by the publication of the official Statement of Persons Nominated (SOPN), has drawn the attention of election guru and veteran forecaster Ben Walker.
“I cannot emphasise enough how a supposedly fringe party standing in almost every seat is not normal stuff. It’s impressive,” said Walker, who is also a Labour councillor in Chester.
“Ukip had an incapacity for organisation. A shoestring, bubble-gum around the wire approach to campaigns dogged its rise all the way.
“However hard the party moved to professionalise, at one point employing a handful of bored kids in North Wales to sift through and reject (or not) racist candidates, it was still found to fall at the first hurdle.
“Which makes the SOPN findings of the week just gone all the more stark,” the analyst added.
Walker then highlighted data revealing where Reform UK is standing its candidates compared to other parties.
In the north of England, Farage’s party is standing 305 candidates, the second most and just one less than Labour’s 306. That’s 41 more than the Tories and 124 more than the Lib Dems.
In the midlands, the Tories and Reform are tied for most candidates, while in the South and East of England, the Tories lead narrowly.
Responding, Walker outlined how Reform is set to challenge all parties, whilst highlighting the Tories’ lack of candidates in the north.
“In essence, it’s Reform vs. the rest of them,” said Walker. “A Reform candidate guaranteed on almost every ballot paper. Something neither Lab or the Cons can as confidently claim.
“The Lib Dems are putting in an equally competitive performance in the South and East of England. Whereas the Greens aren’t doing quite so well at finding candidates as previous.
“In 2023 they could only stand in 55 per cent of the wards up. In 2024 that number had risen to an impressive 74 per cent. But this year it’s fallen back to 72 per cent.
“The notable underperformance of the Cons putting up candidates in the North should arrest anyone of the view the local associations, still smarting from their defeat, are anywhere close to mounting a serious organised recovery,” said the guru.
The analysis comes ahead of the most hotly contested May elections in recent memory as all eyes look to Reform UK to see if they can convert dominant nationwide polling into electoral results.
The elections will also be the first for the Tories in Kemi Badenoch’s tenure and Labour with Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.
LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:
- ‘Our women feel threatened!’ GB News investigation exposes REALITY of migrant hotels in Crewe
- UK's wind farm 'dumping grounds' EXPOSED: Residents 'powerless' as huge turbines erected near homes
- POLL OF THE DAY: Is it time for Britons to buy British? - VOTE NOW
Since July 2024, the Labour premier’s leadership has been marked by significant losses.
Starmer’s party has suffered a net loss of 40 seats since July, with the Tories up 24 seats.
Reform UK, for all their dominant polling and headlines, has only won 13 seats (up 13) inviting criticism that they shout the loudest but aren’t producing results.
The party has enjoyed a large vote share increase of 9.3 per cent, however, indicating multiple second and third places, pointless in First Past The Post, winner takes all contests.
A total of 1,641 councillors will be elected in May to 23 authorities including 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities, and one metropolitan borough.
Of these 23 authorities, 15 are being defended by the Conservative Party compared to just one for Labour, whilst seven councils are under no overall control (NOC).
Of these seven, four are run by Conservative minority administrations, two by Liberal Democrats, and one by Independents.
Nine authorities have cancelled their elections ahead of a shakeup of local government.
Find Out More...