Adam Hart
Guest Reporter
Jess Phillips and Wes Streeting would be the first Labour big beasts to lose their seats if an election were held tomorrow, latest forecasting has revealed.
The Nowcast model, based on recent GB wide polling, is weighted for recency as well as historic pollster accuracy.
It found Labour would lose 106 seats if an election was held tomorrow, reducing its total number of MPs to 305, 21 below the threshold of 326 needed for a majority.
Among the 106 causalities were the big beasts of Wes Streeting, Health Secretary, and Jess Phillips, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Safeguarding and Violence Against Women and Girls.
Both MPs won razor thin majorities on July 4, but the Nowcast model shows both results reversing if an election was held tomorrow.
In Ilford North, Mr Streeting defeated Leanne Mohamad- a 24-year-old independent who ran on a Palestinian ticket- by 528 votes.
In Birmingham Yardley, Ms Phillips- who has 680,000 followers on X- defeated Jody McIntyre of the Workers Party by 693 votes.
The loss of 106 MPs would mean Sir Keir Starmer’s party would likely need to form a coalition to govern as Cameron’s Conservatives did in 2010 when they won 306 seats.
Whilst undeniably heavy, the scale of these projected losses would still not come near to the Tory wipe out in July 2024.
Rishi Sunak’s party lost 244 MPs as the party suffered a landslide defeat.
But since then the Conservatives have been dominating at the ballot box, winning back 21 council seats.
A litany of unpopular decisions by Keir Starmer has seen Labour council candidates punished electorally, losing 22 seats.
LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:
The Nowcast model also showed a huge resurgence in Tory fortunes with Kemi Badenoch’s party projected to gain 93 MPs.
It also had the Liberal Democrats losing three seats putting its total on 69, the SNP up six to 15, Plaid Cymru down one to three while the Greens remained on four.
Reform UK was projected to double their seat hall from five to 10, with gains coming in Bradford South, Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes, Amber Valley, Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr and Llanelli.
The forecast comes as a petition to ‘call a general election’ hit two million signatures this morning.
The poll’s creator Michael Westwood wrote on the government’s petition website: “I would like there to be another General Election.
“I believe the current Labour Government have gone back on the promises they laid out in the lead up to the last election.”
Petitions which reach 100,000 signatures are almost always debated in parliament, but there is almost zero chance a petition will trigger a general election.
Find Out More...
The Nowcast model, based on recent GB wide polling, is weighted for recency as well as historic pollster accuracy.
It found Labour would lose 106 seats if an election was held tomorrow, reducing its total number of MPs to 305, 21 below the threshold of 326 needed for a majority.
Among the 106 causalities were the big beasts of Wes Streeting, Health Secretary, and Jess Phillips, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Safeguarding and Violence Against Women and Girls.
Both MPs won razor thin majorities on July 4, but the Nowcast model shows both results reversing if an election was held tomorrow.
In Ilford North, Mr Streeting defeated Leanne Mohamad- a 24-year-old independent who ran on a Palestinian ticket- by 528 votes.
In Birmingham Yardley, Ms Phillips- who has 680,000 followers on X- defeated Jody McIntyre of the Workers Party by 693 votes.
The loss of 106 MPs would mean Sir Keir Starmer’s party would likely need to form a coalition to govern as Cameron’s Conservatives did in 2010 when they won 306 seats.
Whilst undeniably heavy, the scale of these projected losses would still not come near to the Tory wipe out in July 2024.
Rishi Sunak’s party lost 244 MPs as the party suffered a landslide defeat.
But since then the Conservatives have been dominating at the ballot box, winning back 21 council seats.
A litany of unpopular decisions by Keir Starmer has seen Labour council candidates punished electorally, losing 22 seats.
LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:
- REVEALED: The seats Reform would WIN if an election was held tomorrow - is yours one?
- The West is at war with three formidable enemies...and only one politician can save us - Alex Story
- Thank heavens for Brexit! EU pays Swedish battery firm £1BN in net zero crusade only for it to go bankrupt
The Nowcast model also showed a huge resurgence in Tory fortunes with Kemi Badenoch’s party projected to gain 93 MPs.
It also had the Liberal Democrats losing three seats putting its total on 69, the SNP up six to 15, Plaid Cymru down one to three while the Greens remained on four.
Reform UK was projected to double their seat hall from five to 10, with gains coming in Bradford South, Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes, Amber Valley, Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr and Llanelli.
The forecast comes as a petition to ‘call a general election’ hit two million signatures this morning.
The poll’s creator Michael Westwood wrote on the government’s petition website: “I would like there to be another General Election.
“I believe the current Labour Government have gone back on the promises they laid out in the lead up to the last election.”
Petitions which reach 100,000 signatures are almost always debated in parliament, but there is almost zero chance a petition will trigger a general election.
Find Out More...