Adam Hart
Guest Reporter
Reform has increased its lead over the Tories in Wales to three percentage points according to a latest poll by Survation.
Nigel Farage’s party polled 21 per cent of the vote in the Celtic Nation, three ahead of the Conservatives on 18 per cent and eight ahead of Plaid Cymru on 13 per cent.
Labour’s polling fell four points to 33 per cent as Keir Starmer’s deeply unpopular leadership continues to drive Welsh voters to other parties.
Despite Reform’s poll surge, the anti-immigration party is only projected to win one seat if a general election was held tomorrow, and that is Llanelli in south Wales.
This is because Reform performs poorly under Westminster’s First Past The Post (FPTP) electoral system.
The populist party won no MPs in Wales in the General Election, despite securing 223,018 votes and coming second in 13 constituencies.
In other words, they secured 16.9 per cent of all ballots cast, but 0 per cent of seats.
Labour meanwhile won 27 of 32 seats, mostly at the expense of the Tories who lost all 12 of their seats in a regional wipe out.
In the July General Election in Llanelli, Labour candidate Nia Griffith edged out Reform’s Gareth Beer by 1,504 votes.
But, as analysis by the Nowcast model shows, if an election were held tomorrow with the same candidates, Mr Beer would win the seat with 32.4 per cent of the vote while Ms Griffith’s share would fall to 24.6 per cent.
This is partly because of Labour’s farm tax hike which saw Chancellor Reeves slap 20 per cent death duties on farmers drawing a furious reaction from rural communities.
In response, Farage called for a ‘rural revolt’, encouraging protestors who gathered in London on Tuesday to demonstrate in Labour marginals around the country, many of which are in Wales.
Such demonstrations would heap pressure on Labour incumbents in the rural constituencies of Llanelli, Montgomeryshire and Radnor and a swathe of semi-rural constituencies across the south Wales valleys like Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, Neath and Swansea East and Aberafan Maesteg, all of which Reform came second in July 2024.
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Responding, Leader of the Welsh Conservatives Andrew RT Davies MS, said: “The rebuild of the Conservative brand is underway, but there is still much more to do.
“With Labour already looking like a government on its last legs, we need to continue to expose Reform as the naked opportunists they are.
“Reform is happy to see more politicians created in the Senedd and are even in favour of more powers being devolved to Cardiff Bay.
“The many good people who voted for Reform in Wales at the last election will be shocked by these positions, which are a threat to our Union, and will look to the Welsh Conservatives as the real anti-establishment party.”
A Reform UK Spokesman said: "Reform UK has all the momentum in British politics. We have already won seats under FPTP and with the roll out of our branch structure, we will be in a position to win many more.
"In Wales we are building towards 2026 and the sky's the limit to what we can achieve in the Senedd election.
"Reform is the future of British politics."
The next general election is not due until 2029. Senedd elections are due in May 2026.
Find Out More...
Nigel Farage’s party polled 21 per cent of the vote in the Celtic Nation, three ahead of the Conservatives on 18 per cent and eight ahead of Plaid Cymru on 13 per cent.
Labour’s polling fell four points to 33 per cent as Keir Starmer’s deeply unpopular leadership continues to drive Welsh voters to other parties.
Despite Reform’s poll surge, the anti-immigration party is only projected to win one seat if a general election was held tomorrow, and that is Llanelli in south Wales.
This is because Reform performs poorly under Westminster’s First Past The Post (FPTP) electoral system.
The populist party won no MPs in Wales in the General Election, despite securing 223,018 votes and coming second in 13 constituencies.
In other words, they secured 16.9 per cent of all ballots cast, but 0 per cent of seats.
Labour meanwhile won 27 of 32 seats, mostly at the expense of the Tories who lost all 12 of their seats in a regional wipe out.
In the July General Election in Llanelli, Labour candidate Nia Griffith edged out Reform’s Gareth Beer by 1,504 votes.
But, as analysis by the Nowcast model shows, if an election were held tomorrow with the same candidates, Mr Beer would win the seat with 32.4 per cent of the vote while Ms Griffith’s share would fall to 24.6 per cent.
This is partly because of Labour’s farm tax hike which saw Chancellor Reeves slap 20 per cent death duties on farmers drawing a furious reaction from rural communities.
In response, Farage called for a ‘rural revolt’, encouraging protestors who gathered in London on Tuesday to demonstrate in Labour marginals around the country, many of which are in Wales.
Such demonstrations would heap pressure on Labour incumbents in the rural constituencies of Llanelli, Montgomeryshire and Radnor and a swathe of semi-rural constituencies across the south Wales valleys like Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, Neath and Swansea East and Aberafan Maesteg, all of which Reform came second in July 2024.
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Responding, Leader of the Welsh Conservatives Andrew RT Davies MS, said: “The rebuild of the Conservative brand is underway, but there is still much more to do.
“With Labour already looking like a government on its last legs, we need to continue to expose Reform as the naked opportunists they are.
“Reform is happy to see more politicians created in the Senedd and are even in favour of more powers being devolved to Cardiff Bay.
“The many good people who voted for Reform in Wales at the last election will be shocked by these positions, which are a threat to our Union, and will look to the Welsh Conservatives as the real anti-establishment party.”
A Reform UK Spokesman said: "Reform UK has all the momentum in British politics. We have already won seats under FPTP and with the roll out of our branch structure, we will be in a position to win many more.
"In Wales we are building towards 2026 and the sky's the limit to what we can achieve in the Senedd election.
"Reform is the future of British politics."
The next general election is not due until 2029. Senedd elections are due in May 2026.
Find Out More...