News SHOCK map shows Labour losing 40% of MPs – full 163 seat breakdown REVEALED - Will YOUR Labour MP go?

Adam Hart

Guest Reporter
Labour would lose 163 seats- 40 per cent of its representation in Westminster- in a catastrophic wipeout, a sophisticated poll-aggregating map has revealed.

The projection would see Labour’s majority decimated with Starmer’s party falling 78 seats short of the magic 321 required to rule without entering a coalition.



It would mean the socialist party would have to enter a power sharing alliance with the Liberal Democrats and the SNP who are projected to win 71 and 42 seats (down one and up 33) respectively.

The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent UK wide polling and weights it for recency and historic pollster accuracy, shows the Conservatives winning 137 seats, up 16.



Most Labour losses would be inflicted by a rampant Reform UK who would gain 114 seats (up 109) according to the model.

The two right wing parties would win 251 seats between them, well short of the required number to form a coalition (a highly unlikely preposition anyway).

EXPLORE: Labour's projected losses across Britain - is yours one?​


map visualization


Labour projected losses


The map reveals there would be several high-profile Labour casualties if an election was held tomorrow.

Cabinet ministers Angela Rayner (Deputy PM), Wes Streeting (Health Secretary), John Healey (Defence Secretary), Yvette Cooper (Home Secretary) and Bridget Phillipson (Education Secretary) are all projected to be unseated.

Streeting’s Ilford North seat would be snatched by an independent candidate, while Healey’s Rawmarsh and Conisbrough would go to Reform.

Reform would also take Cooper’s Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley constituency, Rayner’s Ashton-under-Lyme and Phillipson’s Houghton and Sunderland South patch.

Badenoch’s Conservatives would also be caught in the Reform tidal wave. Big beasts Richard Holden (Shadow Paymaster General), Victoria Atkins (Shadow Defra Secretary) and James Cleverly (former Home Secretary) would all be usurped by Reform.

Big beasts currently projected to lose their seats​


Big beasts currently projected to lose their seats


The model comes as a fresh blow to an increasingly under pressure Starmer whose unpopularity is plumbing new depths every week.

His party’s decisions to remove the winter fuel payment for millions of pensioners, slap farmers with death duties, surrender the Chagos Islands and raise taxes by £40billion have all been met with fury.

Just this week, Starmer has been dogged by controversy over his decision to meet a voice coach in person in December 2020 when the nation was in severe Covid lockdown.

Add to that the Chagos Island 'fiasco’, reported to be costing £18billion to British taxpayers, and the news council elections will be cancelled in nine authorities this May, despite all nine raising tax by hundreds of pounds.

The slew of bad headlines for Starmer has been broadly reflected in recent UK wide polling.

On Monday, highly respected pollsters YouGov put Reform at 25 per cent (+2) with Labour second 24 per cent (-3) and the Conservatives third with 21 per cent (-1).

LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:




It was the first national poll by an organisation other than FindOutNow that gave Reform a national lead.

FindOutNow has repeatedly given Reform higher poll ratings than any other polling company. It gave Reform a four-point lead with Farage’s party polling 27 per cent compared to Labour’s 23 per cent last week.

Reacting, a Reform UK spokesman said: "It’s no surprise we’re polling six points ahead of the Tories.

“The British people have been let down by the empty promises and failures of both Labour and the Conservatives. Fourteen years of Conservative rule have left the country poorer, worsened illegal immigration, and deepened divisions.

"Britons are tired of a two-party system where party politics and self-interest come before the needs of the people. Reform UK is breaking this cycle, standing for small businesses, farming families, lower taxes, prosperity, and British freedoms.

“Our remarkable transformation into a professional, organised, and election-winning force reflects this mission. With over 185,000 members, polling above 27% nationally, and with significant by-election successes, Reform UK is the party of real change.

“Our growing support is a clear reminder: the British people demand a government that works for them, not against them."



LABOUR MPS PROJECTED TO LOSE SEATS

ENGLAND


Noah Law / St Austell and Newquay / RFM GAIN

Anna Gelderd / South East Cornwall / RFM GAIN

Fred Thomas / Plymouth Moor View / RFM GAIN

Lloyd Hatton / South Dorset / CON GAIN

Neil Duncan-Jordan / Poole / CON GAIN

Sadik Al-Hassan / North Somerset / CON GAIN

Matt Bishop / Forest of Dean / CON GAIN

Yuan Yang / Earley and Woodley / CON GAIN

Olivia Bailey / Reading West and Mid Berkshire / CON GAIN

Peter Swallow / Bracknell / CON GAIN

Amanda Martin / Portsmouth North / CON GAIN

Tony Vaughan / Folkestone and Hythe / RFM GAIN

Mike Tapp / Dover and Deal / RFM GAIN

Polly Billington / East Thanet / RFM GAIN

Sojan Joseph / Ashford / RFM GAIN

Tristan Osborne / Chatham and Aylesford / RFM GAIN

Lauren Edwards / Rochester and Strood / RFM GAIN

Naushabah Khan / Gillingham and Rainham / RFM GAIN

Kevin McKenna / Sittingbourne and Sheppey / RFM GAIN

Jim Dickson / Dartford / RFM GAIN

Lauren Sullivan / Gravesham / RFM GAIN

David Burton-Sampson / Southend West and Leigh / CON GAIN

Jen Craft / Thurrock / RFM GAIN

Daniel Francis / Bexleyheath and Crayford / RFM GAIN

Margaret Mullane / Dagenham and Rainham / RFM GAIN

Chris Vince / Harlow / RFM GAIN

Wes Streeting / Ilford North / MIN GAIN

Peter Prinsley / Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket / CON GAIN

Jenny Riddell-Carpenter / Suffolk Coastal / CON GAIN

Jess Asato / Lowestoft / RFM GAIN

Ben Goldsborough / South Norfolk / CON GAIN

Terry Jermy / South West Norfolk / RFM GAIN

Rushanara Ali / Bethnal Green and Stepney / MIN GAIN

Rachel Blake / Cities of London and Westminster / CON GAIN

Joe Powell / Kensington and Bayswater / CON GAIN

Ben Coleman / Chelsea and Fulham / CON GAIN

Callum Anderson / Buckingham and Bletchley / CON GAIN

Danny Beales / Uxbridge and South Ruislip / CON GAIN

Laura Kyrke-Smith / Aylesbury / CON GAIN

Chris Bloore / Redditch / CON GAIN

Cat Eccles / Stourbridge / RFM GAIN

Alex Ballinger / Halesowen / RFM GAIN

Laurence Turner / Birmingham Northfield / RFM GAIN

Alex Mayer / Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard / CON GAIN

David Pinto-Duschinsky / Hendon / CON GAIN

Sarah Sackman / Finchley and Golders Green / CON GAIN

Dan Tomlinson / Chipping Barnet / CON GAIN

Andrew Pakes / Peterborough / CON GAIN

Sam Carling / North West Cambridgeshire / CON GAIN

Chris Hinchliff / North East Hertfordshire / CON GAIN

Shaun Davies / Telford / RFM GAIN

Sonia Kumar / Dudley / RFM GAIN

Sureena Brackenridge / Wolverhampton North East / RFM GAIN

Antonia Bance / Tipton and Wednesbury / RFM GAIN

Jess Phillips / Birmingham Yardley / WPB GAIN

Jodie Gosling / Nuneaton / RFM GAIN

Gen Kitchen / Wellingborough and Rushden / RFM GAIN

Rachel Taylor / North Warwickshire and Bedworth / RFM GAIN

Liam Byrne / Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North / RFM GAIN

Valerie Vaz / Walsall and Bloxwich / RFM GAIN

Josh Newbury / Cannock Chase / RFM GAIN

Dave Robertson / Lichfield / CON GAIN

Sarah Edwards / Tamworth / RFM GAIN

Jacob Collier / Burton and Uttoxeter / RFM GAIN

Paulette Hamilton / Birmingham Erdington / RFM GAIN

Amanda Hack / North West Leicestershire / CON GAIN

Allison Gardner / Stoke-on-Trent South / RFM GAIN

Adam Jogee / Newcastle-under-Lyme / RFM GAIN

Samantha Niblett / South Derbyshire / RFM GAIN

Baggy Shanker / Derby South / RFM GAIN

Adam Thompson / Erewash / RFM GAIN

Natalie Fleet / Bolsover / RFM GAIN

Jonathan Davies / Mid Derbyshire / CON GAIN

Gareth Snell / Stoke-on-Trent Central / RFM GAIN

David Williams / Stoke-on-Trent North / RFM GAIN

John Whitby / Derbyshire Dales / CON GAIN

Linsey Farnsworth / Amber Valley / RFM GAIN

Louise Jones / North East Derbyshire / CON GAIN

Melanie Onn / Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes / RFM GAIN

Nicholas Dakin / Scunthorpe / RFM GAIN

Michelle Welsh / Sherwood Forest / RFM GAIN

Steve Yemm / Mansfield / RFM GAIN

Jo White / Bassetlaw / RFM GAIN

Jake Richards / Rother Valley / CON GAIN

Sarah Champion / Rotherham / RFM GAIN

John Healey / Rawmarsh and Conisbrough / RFM GAIN

Lee Pitcher / Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme / RFM GAIN

Stephanie Peacock / Barnsley South / RFM GAIN

Jon Trickett / Normanton and Hemsworth / RFM GAIN

Dan Jarvis / Barnsley North / RFM GAIN

Jade Botterill / Ossett and Denby Dale / RFM GAIN

Yvette Cooper / Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley / RFM GAIN

Karl Turner / Kingston upon Hull East / RFM GAIN

Kim Leadbeater / Spen Valley / RFM GAIN

Judith Cummins / Bradford South / RFM GAIN

Kate Dearden / Halifax / RFM GAIN

Josh Simons / Makerfield / RFM GAIN

Jo Platt / Leigh and Atherton / RFM GAIN

Yasmin Qureshi / Bolton South and Walkden / RFM GAIN

Angela Rayner / Ashton-under-Lyne / RFM GAIN

Naz Shah / Bradford West / MIN GAIN

Alison Hume / Scarborough and Whitby / RFM GAIN

Luke Myer / Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland / CON GAIN

Kirith Entwistle / Bolton North East / RFM GAIN

Chris Webb / Blackpool South / RFM GAIN

Lorraine Beavers / Blackpool North and Fleetwood / RFM GAIN

Andy MacNae / Rossendale and Darwen / RFM GAIN

Sarah Smith / Hyndburn / RFM GAIN

Elsie Blundell / Heywood and Middleton North / RFM GAIN

Jim McMahon / Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton / RFM GAIN

Debbie Abrahams / Oldham East and Saddleworth / RFM GAIN

Paul Waugh / Rochdale / WPB GAIN

Oliver Ryan / Burnley / RFM GAIN

Luke Akehurst / North Durham / RFM GAIN

Sam Rushworth / Bishop Auckland / RFM GAIN

Lola McEvoy / Darlington / CON GAIN

Jonathan Hinder / Pendle and Clitheroe / CON GAIN

Maya Ellis / Ribble Valley / CON GAIN

Chris McDonald / Stockton North / RFM GAIN

Jonathan Brash / Hartlepool / RFM GAIN

Grahame Morris / Easington / RFM GAIN

Lewis Atkinson / Sunderland Central / RFM GAIN

Bridget Phillipson / Houghton and Sunderland South / RFM GAIN

Sharon Hodgson / Washington and Gateshead South / RFM GAIN

Emma Lewell-Buck / South Shields / RFM GAIN

Ian Lavery / Blyth and Ashington / RFM GAIN

Julie Minns / Carlisle / RFM GAIN

SCOTLAND

Elaine Stewart / Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock / SNP GAIN

Lillian Jones / Kilmarnock and Loudoun / SNP GAIN

Alan Gemmell / Central Ayrshire / SNP GAIN

Gregor Poynton / Livingston / SNP GAIN

Joani Reid / East Kilbride and Strathaven / SNP GAIN

Pamela Nash / Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke / SNP GAIN

Blair McDougall / East Renfrewshire / SNP GAIN

Kirsty McNeill / Midlothian / SNP GAIN

Scott Arthur / Edinburgh South West / SNP GAIN

Chris Murray / Edinburgh East and Musselburgh / SNP GAIN

Tracy Gilbert / Edinburgh North and Leith / SNP GAIN

Johanna Baxter / Paisley and Renfrewshire South / SNP GAIN

Irene Campbell / North Ayrshire and Arran / SNP GAIN

Gordon McKee / Glasgow South / SNP GAIN

Alison Taylor / Paisley and Renfrewshire North / SNP GAIN

Martin McCluskey / Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West / SNP GAIN

Frank McNally / Coatbridge and Bellshill / SNP GAIN

Zubir Ahmed / Glasgow South West / SNP GAIN

Patricia Ferguson / Glasgow West / SNP GAIN

Graeme Downie / Dunfermline and Dollar / SNP GAIN

John Grady / Glasgow East / SNP GAIN

Martin Rhodes / Glasgow North / SNP GAIN

Douglas McAllister / West Dunbartonshire / SNP GAIN

Tracy Gilbert / Edinburgh North and Leith / SNP GAIN

Melanie Ward / Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy / SNP GAIN

Euan Stainbank / Falkirk / SNP GAIN

Maureen Burke / Glasgow North East / SNP GAIN

Richard Baker / Glenrothes and Mid Fife / SNP GAIN

Brian Leishman / Alloa and Grangemouth / SNP GAIN

Katrina Murray / Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch / SNP GAIN

Chris Kane / Stirling and Strathallan / SNP GAIN

WALES

Nia Griffith / Llanelli / RFM GAIN

Henry Tufnell / Mid and South Pembrokeshire / CON GAIN

Steve Witherden / Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr / RFM GAIN

Gill German / Clwyd North / CON GAIN

Find Out More...
 
Top Bottom