Adam Hart
Guest Reporter
Latest forecasting has found swathes of Conservative heartlands would go blue again and Labour would lose its majority if an election was held tomorrow.
The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent GB wide polling, is weighted for recency as well as historic pollster accuracy.
It showed the Conservatives gaining a whopping 93 MPs as their vote share swelled to 26.5 per cent.
Labour would lose 106 seats meanwhile, reducing their total to 305 MPs, below the threshold of 326 needed for a majority.
This would mean Sir Keir Starmer’s party would likely need to form a coalition to govern as Cameron’s Conservatives did in 2010 when they won 306 seats.
Many of Labour’s losses were projected in Tory heartland seats which they managed to win in July 2024, often for the first time in decades.
GB News has analysed the forecast map and come up with ten Tory heartland seats most likely to see a former Conservative big beast return at the next election.
Portsmouth North / Penny Mordaunt
While not a traditional Tory heartland seat, Portsmouth North was the seat of Penny Mordaunt, the former Leader of the House and Secretary of State for Defence who wielded a large sword so effectively at the King’s Coronation.
Mordaunt was one of the highest profile casualties of the July election, losing by a slender 780 votes to Labour candidate Amanda Martin after 14 years as an MP.
Once seen as a favourite to replace Rishi Sunak as leader of the Tory party, Mordaunt has been touted for a return to politics via a by-election.
Robert Jenrick, who came second in the competition to succeed Sunak, said he would bring Mordaunt back into frontline politics if he had won.
The Nowcast model shows Portsmouth North turning blue with an 8.6 per cent Tory majority if an election were held tomorrow.
South West Norfolk / Liz Truss
A true Tory heartland, South West Norfolk had been blue for 60 years until former Prime Minister Liz Truss lost it in July 2024 by 630 votes to Labour’s Terry Jermy.
Britain’s most brief PM in recent years has not ruled out a political comeback.
At the 2024 Tory conference she was asked by Telegraph columnist Tim Stanley if she’d consider a return to the House of Commons.
Truss replied: “I’ve only been out of Parliament for a few months, so I’m currently thinking about what to do.
“What is certainly true is I’m not going to give up on this fight. I think this is the fight of our lifetimes, is saving Western civilization, and that is what I’m focused on.”
The Former PM weighs in on politics regularly, stating ‘Britain needs its own Donald Trump’, ‘I would have done better than Rishi Sunak at the election’ and to ‘not deal out Tory deal with Reform.
The Nowcast model is predicting a Tory win in the seat with a 2.6 per cent majority over Reform who leapfrog Labour into second.
Suffolk Coastal / Therese Coffey
Another Tory stronghold in East Anglia was Suffolk Coastal, blue since 1983 and Thérèse Coffey’s since 2010.
Coffey, former deputy Prime Minister, was defeated by Labour in July by 1,070 votes surrendering a majority of over 20,000.
After the loss she applied for a job in Labour’s Treasury as UK director at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), indicating a desire to carry on in politics. She was unsuccessful.
The Nowcast model shows Suffolk Coastal swinging back to the Tories with an 8.1 per cent majority.
Welwyn Hatfield / Grant Shapps
Welwyn Hatfield, a traditionally Tory seat in Hertfordshire, was the seat of Grant Shapps who has served stints as former Secretary of State for Defence, Home Affairs, Transport and Energy, and been Chairman of the Tory party.
Shapps had held the seats since 2005 but lost by 3,799 votes to Labour challenger Andrew Lewin.
It has been widely reported that Shapps is eyeing a political comeback.
He said: “As for my future, we’ll see. If you ask has the itch been eradicated, no, I really enjoy public service, it is something I may come back to in future.
When asked about rumours the former PM or his deputy could quit, he added:
“All I’d say is, I’m in no rush, I’ve been very happy to adjust to spend a bit. More time doing the things I love. I’m in no rush and I’m not thinking about any of that at the moment.”
The Nowcast model shows Welwyn Hatfield going blue again with a 2.4 per cent majority.
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North East Somerset and Hanham / Jacob Rees Mogg
Jacob Rees Mogg, former Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and Leader of the House, was the MP for North East Somerset since 2010.
His majority of over 14,000 was reversed in 2024 when he lost to Labour candidate Dan Norris by 5,319 votes.
Rees Mogg, now a GB News presenter, made his intention to return to politics clear in the recent Discovery+ documentary about his family which airs in Britain on December 2.
In the show, which has been dubbed the “British Kardashians”, Rees Mogg said: “I'd love to stand again. I mean, I love being a member of Parliament.
“I love representing the seat I represented and found it a very worthwhile thing to do.”
The Nowcast model shows North East Somerset going blue again on a razor thin majority of 0.1 per cent.
It is worth remembering the Nowcast model, which calculates a seat projection based on aggregating polls over the last few months, is not a prediction of the future.
Instead, it captures the national mood for that period and translates that into a seat projection.
Even so, the map makes grim reading for Labour who have suffered the fastest downturn in popularity after an election in modern times.
Find Out More...
The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent GB wide polling, is weighted for recency as well as historic pollster accuracy.
It showed the Conservatives gaining a whopping 93 MPs as their vote share swelled to 26.5 per cent.
Labour would lose 106 seats meanwhile, reducing their total to 305 MPs, below the threshold of 326 needed for a majority.
This would mean Sir Keir Starmer’s party would likely need to form a coalition to govern as Cameron’s Conservatives did in 2010 when they won 306 seats.
Many of Labour’s losses were projected in Tory heartland seats which they managed to win in July 2024, often for the first time in decades.
GB News has analysed the forecast map and come up with ten Tory heartland seats most likely to see a former Conservative big beast return at the next election.
Portsmouth North / Penny Mordaunt
While not a traditional Tory heartland seat, Portsmouth North was the seat of Penny Mordaunt, the former Leader of the House and Secretary of State for Defence who wielded a large sword so effectively at the King’s Coronation.
Mordaunt was one of the highest profile casualties of the July election, losing by a slender 780 votes to Labour candidate Amanda Martin after 14 years as an MP.
Once seen as a favourite to replace Rishi Sunak as leader of the Tory party, Mordaunt has been touted for a return to politics via a by-election.
Robert Jenrick, who came second in the competition to succeed Sunak, said he would bring Mordaunt back into frontline politics if he had won.
The Nowcast model shows Portsmouth North turning blue with an 8.6 per cent Tory majority if an election were held tomorrow.
South West Norfolk / Liz Truss
A true Tory heartland, South West Norfolk had been blue for 60 years until former Prime Minister Liz Truss lost it in July 2024 by 630 votes to Labour’s Terry Jermy.
Britain’s most brief PM in recent years has not ruled out a political comeback.
At the 2024 Tory conference she was asked by Telegraph columnist Tim Stanley if she’d consider a return to the House of Commons.
Truss replied: “I’ve only been out of Parliament for a few months, so I’m currently thinking about what to do.
“What is certainly true is I’m not going to give up on this fight. I think this is the fight of our lifetimes, is saving Western civilization, and that is what I’m focused on.”
The Former PM weighs in on politics regularly, stating ‘Britain needs its own Donald Trump’, ‘I would have done better than Rishi Sunak at the election’ and to ‘not deal out Tory deal with Reform.
The Nowcast model is predicting a Tory win in the seat with a 2.6 per cent majority over Reform who leapfrog Labour into second.
Suffolk Coastal / Therese Coffey
Another Tory stronghold in East Anglia was Suffolk Coastal, blue since 1983 and Thérèse Coffey’s since 2010.
Coffey, former deputy Prime Minister, was defeated by Labour in July by 1,070 votes surrendering a majority of over 20,000.
After the loss she applied for a job in Labour’s Treasury as UK director at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), indicating a desire to carry on in politics. She was unsuccessful.
The Nowcast model shows Suffolk Coastal swinging back to the Tories with an 8.1 per cent majority.
Welwyn Hatfield / Grant Shapps
Welwyn Hatfield, a traditionally Tory seat in Hertfordshire, was the seat of Grant Shapps who has served stints as former Secretary of State for Defence, Home Affairs, Transport and Energy, and been Chairman of the Tory party.
Shapps had held the seats since 2005 but lost by 3,799 votes to Labour challenger Andrew Lewin.
It has been widely reported that Shapps is eyeing a political comeback.
He said: “As for my future, we’ll see. If you ask has the itch been eradicated, no, I really enjoy public service, it is something I may come back to in future.
When asked about rumours the former PM or his deputy could quit, he added:
“All I’d say is, I’m in no rush, I’ve been very happy to adjust to spend a bit. More time doing the things I love. I’m in no rush and I’m not thinking about any of that at the moment.”
The Nowcast model shows Welwyn Hatfield going blue again with a 2.4 per cent majority.
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North East Somerset and Hanham / Jacob Rees Mogg
Jacob Rees Mogg, former Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and Leader of the House, was the MP for North East Somerset since 2010.
His majority of over 14,000 was reversed in 2024 when he lost to Labour candidate Dan Norris by 5,319 votes.
Rees Mogg, now a GB News presenter, made his intention to return to politics clear in the recent Discovery+ documentary about his family which airs in Britain on December 2.
In the show, which has been dubbed the “British Kardashians”, Rees Mogg said: “I'd love to stand again. I mean, I love being a member of Parliament.
“I love representing the seat I represented and found it a very worthwhile thing to do.”
The Nowcast model shows North East Somerset going blue again on a razor thin majority of 0.1 per cent.
It is worth remembering the Nowcast model, which calculates a seat projection based on aggregating polls over the last few months, is not a prediction of the future.
Instead, it captures the national mood for that period and translates that into a seat projection.
Even so, the map makes grim reading for Labour who have suffered the fastest downturn in popularity after an election in modern times.
Find Out More...