Adam Hart
Guest Reporter
Labour’s grip on London is weakening amidst a Tory fightback, latest polling has shown.
The Nowcast model, which aggregates polling over the last month to project seats, indicates the Conservatives would win 18 of the capital’s 75 seats if an election was held tomorrow, doubling their current haul of nine.
Labour would remain dominant with 49 seats and the Liberal Democrats would also keep their cluster of six seats in southwest London.
For the Tories, this model offers hope after a terrible performance in the General Election in London.
Not only does it double their current tally of nine seats, but it also shows all the gains coming at Labour’s expense.
Many of these areas Labour had won for the first time in decades on very slim majorities.
They include Uxbridge and South Ruislip where Danny Beales won by 587 votes, Chelsea and Fulham where Ben Coleman won by 152 votes and Hendon where David Pinto-Duschinsky won by a miniscule 15 votes.
The model also shows independent candidates winning two seats from Labour.
Rushanara Ali is set to lose Bethnal Green and Stepley while Wes Streeting, Labour big beast and current Health Secretary, is set to lose Ilford North.
Streeting would be the first Labour frontbencher to lose his seat as his 528-vote majority is overturned.
In terms of vote share, the model found Labour’s to be down seven per cent to 36 per cent, with the Tories up three per cent to 24 per cent.
Reform was up four per cent, the Lib Dems one and Greens two, meanwhile.
LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:
Full list of seat changes in London:
Bethnal Green and Stepney / Rushanara Ali / Independent GAIN from Labour
Bexleyheath and Crayford / Daniel Francis / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Brent West / Barry Gardiner / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Chelsea and Fulham / Ben Coleman / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Chipping Barnet / Dan Tomlinson / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Cities of London and Westminster / Rachel Blake / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Finchley and Golders Green / Sarah Sackman / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Harrow West / Gareth Thomas / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Ilford North / Wes Streeting / Independent GAIN from Labour
Kensington and Bayswater / Joe Powell / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Uxbridge and South Ruislip / Danny Beales / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Find Out More...
The Nowcast model, which aggregates polling over the last month to project seats, indicates the Conservatives would win 18 of the capital’s 75 seats if an election was held tomorrow, doubling their current haul of nine.
EXPLORE: London's latest seat projection showing Tory gains
Labour would remain dominant with 49 seats and the Liberal Democrats would also keep their cluster of six seats in southwest London.
For the Tories, this model offers hope after a terrible performance in the General Election in London.
Not only does it double their current tally of nine seats, but it also shows all the gains coming at Labour’s expense.
Many of these areas Labour had won for the first time in decades on very slim majorities.
They include Uxbridge and South Ruislip where Danny Beales won by 587 votes, Chelsea and Fulham where Ben Coleman won by 152 votes and Hendon where David Pinto-Duschinsky won by a miniscule 15 votes.
The model also shows independent candidates winning two seats from Labour.
Rushanara Ali is set to lose Bethnal Green and Stepley while Wes Streeting, Labour big beast and current Health Secretary, is set to lose Ilford North.
Streeting would be the first Labour frontbencher to lose his seat as his 528-vote majority is overturned.
In terms of vote share, the model found Labour’s to be down seven per cent to 36 per cent, with the Tories up three per cent to 24 per cent.
Reform was up four per cent, the Lib Dems one and Greens two, meanwhile.
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Full list of seat changes in London:
Bethnal Green and Stepney / Rushanara Ali / Independent GAIN from Labour
Bexleyheath and Crayford / Daniel Francis / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Brent West / Barry Gardiner / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Chelsea and Fulham / Ben Coleman / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Chipping Barnet / Dan Tomlinson / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Cities of London and Westminster / Rachel Blake / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Finchley and Golders Green / Sarah Sackman / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Harrow West / Gareth Thomas / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Ilford North / Wes Streeting / Independent GAIN from Labour
Kensington and Bayswater / Joe Powell / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Uxbridge and South Ruislip / Danny Beales / Conservative GAIN from Labour
Find Out More...