Reform UK is eyeing three major electoral upsets today as Farage’s party looks to inflict its first defeats on Labour in 2025.
By-elections, important bell-weather tests that reveal which way the country is voting, have been a nightmare for incumbent Labour since July’s General Election.
Keir Starmer’s party has suffered a net loss of 27 seats, while the Conservatives have recorded a net gain of 22 seats. Reform is up seven.
Today, five more council seats are up for grabs, with Reform poised to mount a strong challenge in three. They are:
Town ward, Newcastle-under-Lyme
Reform’s best chance of causing an upset is likely to come in Newcastle-under-Lyme, Staffordshire, adjacent to Stoke-on-Trent.
Neill Antony Walker is standing for the anti-immigration party. He came third in July’s General Election, 2,000 votes behind the Tories and 6,000 behind eventual winner Adam Jogee of Labour.
But a sophisticated poll-aggregating model shows Reform has eliminated the gap to Labour in the constituency in the time since the election.
The Nowcast model puts Reform on 31.4 per cent in the patch, 0.4 per cent behind Labour and six per cent ahead of the Tories.
Much Woolton and Hunts Cross ward, Liverpool City
An outside chance of an upset for Reform comes in the Much Woolton and Hunts Cross ward in south Liverpool.
A safe Labour area, Reform candidate Adam Heatherington is hoping to capitalise on record levels of mistrust in Starmer’s party.
Heatherington has been unsuccessful in his first 13 elections in which he has stood for UKIP, the Brexit party, as an independent and now Reform UK.
The Nowcast model shows Heatherington faces a tough task. The model puts Labour safely out in front as the largest party, though down 7.9 per cent.
Reform is up 6.7 per cent into second.
Heatherington said: “We have been well received on the doorsteps and there has been an increasing support for Reform UK.
“This is due to the mistrust of Labour which has neglected the working class for their own selfish ideology.
“Labour has put massive distrust and disappointment in the hearts of voters and they look to Reform UK as the last hope for saving Great Britain."
Bannockburn ward, Stirling
Reform’s only realistic chance north of the border comes in Bannockburn, one of Stirling’s council wards.
William Docherty is standing for Reform’s party here, who is channelling Robert the Bruce for his campaign.
Docherty said: “Bannockburn has always been a symbol of perseverance and victory against the odds.
“Inspired by Robert the Bruce, who turned defeat into glory right here on our soil, I am stepping forward once again to fight for the future of our community.
“People are ready for a new kind of politics.”
The ward falls within the Westminster seat of Stirling and Strathallan, currently projected as a Labour loss by Nowcast model.
Starmer’s party is set to lose it to the SNP however, with Reform, the Tories and Labour competing for second, though Reform is the only party to have recorded significant growth in support.
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Elsewhere, there is a Liberal Democrat ward up for grabs in Edinburgh and a Labour ward heading to the polls on Shetland.
Labour is guaranteed to lose the Shetland ward as two independent candidates are standing unopposed.
It comes after Reform UK enjoyed another strong batch of poll results over the last seven days.
MoreInCommon put the party joint first on 25 per cent yesterday, while YouGov projected a score of 24 per cent putting them second two points behind Labour on Tuesday.
DeltaPollUK put Reform third on 22 per cent, while Find Out Now had Reform in joint first on 25 per cent last week.
It is important to remember polls do not predict the future but show a snapshot of public opinion on a certain day.
Further, council wards are affected by local issues and suffer from low turnouts, making them difficult to predict.
Local elections are due across England in May. There are also elections for the Welsh and Scottish parliaments in May 2026.
Find Out More...
By-elections, important bell-weather tests that reveal which way the country is voting, have been a nightmare for incumbent Labour since July’s General Election.
Keir Starmer’s party has suffered a net loss of 27 seats, while the Conservatives have recorded a net gain of 22 seats. Reform is up seven.
Today, five more council seats are up for grabs, with Reform poised to mount a strong challenge in three. They are:
Town ward, Newcastle-under-Lyme
Reform’s best chance of causing an upset is likely to come in Newcastle-under-Lyme, Staffordshire, adjacent to Stoke-on-Trent.
Neill Antony Walker is standing for the anti-immigration party. He came third in July’s General Election, 2,000 votes behind the Tories and 6,000 behind eventual winner Adam Jogee of Labour.
But a sophisticated poll-aggregating model shows Reform has eliminated the gap to Labour in the constituency in the time since the election.
The Nowcast model puts Reform on 31.4 per cent in the patch, 0.4 per cent behind Labour and six per cent ahead of the Tories.
Much Woolton and Hunts Cross ward, Liverpool City
An outside chance of an upset for Reform comes in the Much Woolton and Hunts Cross ward in south Liverpool.
A safe Labour area, Reform candidate Adam Heatherington is hoping to capitalise on record levels of mistrust in Starmer’s party.
Heatherington has been unsuccessful in his first 13 elections in which he has stood for UKIP, the Brexit party, as an independent and now Reform UK.
The Nowcast model shows Heatherington faces a tough task. The model puts Labour safely out in front as the largest party, though down 7.9 per cent.
Reform is up 6.7 per cent into second.
Heatherington said: “We have been well received on the doorsteps and there has been an increasing support for Reform UK.
“This is due to the mistrust of Labour which has neglected the working class for their own selfish ideology.
“Labour has put massive distrust and disappointment in the hearts of voters and they look to Reform UK as the last hope for saving Great Britain."
Bannockburn ward, Stirling
Reform’s only realistic chance north of the border comes in Bannockburn, one of Stirling’s council wards.
William Docherty is standing for Reform’s party here, who is channelling Robert the Bruce for his campaign.
Docherty said: “Bannockburn has always been a symbol of perseverance and victory against the odds.
“Inspired by Robert the Bruce, who turned defeat into glory right here on our soil, I am stepping forward once again to fight for the future of our community.
“People are ready for a new kind of politics.”
The ward falls within the Westminster seat of Stirling and Strathallan, currently projected as a Labour loss by Nowcast model.
Starmer’s party is set to lose it to the SNP however, with Reform, the Tories and Labour competing for second, though Reform is the only party to have recorded significant growth in support.
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Elsewhere, there is a Liberal Democrat ward up for grabs in Edinburgh and a Labour ward heading to the polls on Shetland.
Labour is guaranteed to lose the Shetland ward as two independent candidates are standing unopposed.
It comes after Reform UK enjoyed another strong batch of poll results over the last seven days.
MoreInCommon put the party joint first on 25 per cent yesterday, while YouGov projected a score of 24 per cent putting them second two points behind Labour on Tuesday.
DeltaPollUK put Reform third on 22 per cent, while Find Out Now had Reform in joint first on 25 per cent last week.
It is important to remember polls do not predict the future but show a snapshot of public opinion on a certain day.
Further, council wards are affected by local issues and suffer from low turnouts, making them difficult to predict.
Local elections are due across England in May. There are also elections for the Welsh and Scottish parliaments in May 2026.
Find Out More...