Reform UK has seven chances to land electoral body blows to Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories this week with council by-elections due in ‘fertile’ Farage territory.
Council wards are up for grabs in Wales, Scotland, the West Midlands, London and the South East of England, all areas Reform has been polling in strongly in recent weeks.
Council elections were thrust into the limelight last week by Farage and Reform after Labour Deputy PM Angela Rayner allowed nine councils to cancel their elections in May.
The ‘disruptor’ party had been threatening to win scores of seats in areas like Kent, Thurrock and Essex, but the cancellations will mean Conservative and Labour incumbents are safe for at least another year.
Farage accused the two establishment parties of ‘collusion’ and a ‘plot to stop people voting for Reform’, adding that the Tories were ‘running scared’.
However, this week's elections are going ahead and if national polls are anything to go by, the mainstream parties are in for a rough ride.
A scan of latest national polls reveals Reform to be consistently polling neck and neck with Labour. On Sunday, Opinium Research put them on 26 per cent, one behind Labour and four ahead of the Tories.
Last week, FindOutNow put Farage’s army on 29 per cent, way ahead of Labour on 25 per cent and the Conservatives on 18 per cent, 11 points behind.
Where are the elections and how likely are Reform wins?
While polling is unavailable for individual council wards, GB News has analysed a sophisticated poll aggregating model that shows how each Westminster constituency would vote based on current opinion.
The Nowcast model, which aggregates nationwide polls and weights them for recency and historic pollster accuracy, has projected Labour’s majority to be decimated if an election was held tomorrow, with scores of seats heading to the Tories, Reform and SNP.
By placing each council ward in its constituency, GB News has ranked the seven council elections in order of Reform’s chances of a win.
Trevethin & Penygarn (Torfaen, Wales)
Reform’s best chance of inflicting defeat on Labour comes in Torfaen in south east Wales.
This will be the most interesting election result to see as the ward would appear to be a safe Labour seat.
Not only did Labour win the ward with a resounding 76 per cent of the vote last time out, but it also falls within the Torfaen Westminster constituency which has been Labour since its creation in 1983.
However, Wales’ devolved government, which has been Labour controlled since its foundation in 1999, has been unable to stop the Welsh NHS from recording the worst waiting lists in Britain while educational outcomes for Welsh children are also the lowest of the home nations.
As a result, Welsh voters appear to be turning to Reform, not the Tories, and Farage’s party has been making huge gains in working class Welsh areas.
Indeed, the Nowcast model shows Reform breathing down Labour’s neck in Torfaen, just five per cent behind.
Farage’s party also benefit from the Conservatives not standing a candidate in the ward, though there are two independents.
Haverfordwest Prendergast (Pembrokeshire, Wales)
The first opportunity for Reform this week comes in the far south west of Wales in Haverfordwest where voters in Prendergast will be heading to the polls on Tuesday night.
In 2022, the Tories triumphed in a two-horse race with Labour, winning in a 59/41 split.
Haverfordwest falls within the Westminster seat of Mid and South Pembrokeshire, a swing seat that is currently a Labour marginal.
However, the Nowcast model is currently projecting Labour to lose the seat to the Conservatives, but it is a tight three horse race with Reform a very close third place.
Manor (Stevenage, East England)
The ward of Manor in Stevenage returned a Liberal Democrat councillor safely in 2024, but Reform is in with a chance of an upset here.
Manor falls within the Westminster ward of Stevenage which comfortably voted Labour in July 2024 but is now projecting a very slim Labour majority as Reform whittle down the lead.
Farage’s party are roughly five percentage points behind on the Nowcast model, so it may come down the strength of the Lib Dem councillor on the night.
Warwick All Saints & Woodloes (Warwick, West Midlands)
Another interesting battle is shaping up in the Warwick ward of Warwick All Saints & Woodloes, another Labour defence.
Starmer’s party beat the Conservatives in a close contest in 2023, but Reform has been polling strongly in the area and will certainly have poached much of the Tory vote.
It still looks a tough ask for Reform to overturn Labour and it will all come down to how many Tory voters have abandoned their former party.
Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East (New Forest, South England)
A relatively tough challenge for Reform comes in Hampshire’s New Forest where the Green Party is defending a tightly contested ward.
The Conservatives canvassed 24 per cent of the vote last time out in 2023, indicating a relatively small amount of right-wing sentiment.
The ward falls within the New Forest West constituency, a traditionally safe Conservative seat but one that saw Tory incumbent Desmond Swayne’s majority reduced from 24,000 to 5,000 at the last election.
The Nowcast model shows the seat returning to its Tory roots, but it is Reform who are hoovering up the most support with their vote up nine per cent.
However, with a strong Green party approach to local elections, it may be the environmental party who end up winning at dissatisfied voters who are thinking about voting Reform may not be willing to take the jump yet.
Burnt Oak (Barnet, London)
One of the tougher asks for Reform this week comes in the north west London ward of Burnt Oak.
Labour is defending the seat after a convincing win in 2022. Starmer’s party also won the Westminster seat of Hendon, albeit by the smallest majority of the entire July General Election of 15 votes.
That miniscule majority has already been wiped out according to the Nowcast model which shows the seat swinging back to the Conservatives with Reform a distant third.
Kirkintilloch East & North & Twechar (East Dunbartonshire, Scotland)
Reform’s only chance north of the border comes in East Dunbartonshire but it’s a big ask with candidates from Labour, the Conservatives, Reform, Lib Dems, Green and SNP all standing.
The ward was won by the SNP in 2022, and according to Westminster projections for the two seats the ward straddles (Mid Dunbartonshire and Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch) it looks set to stay that way.
The challenge will come from the Lib Dems who are projected to win Mid Dunbartonshire comfortably.
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It comes as YouGov’s latest national poll- which came out this morning- gave Reform a national lead in consecutive polls for the first time ever.
It put Farage’s party on 26 per cent nationally, with Labour on 25 per cent and the Tories floundering on 21 per cent.
A Reform spokesperson said: “The British people have been let down by the empty promises and failures of both Labour and the Conservatives.
“Fourteen years of Conservative rule have left the country poorer, worsened illegal immigration, and deepened divisions.
"Britons are tired of a two-party system where party politics and self-interest come before the needs of the people. Reform UK is breaking this cycle, standing for small businesses, farming families, lower taxes, prosperity, and British freedoms.
“Our remarkable transformation into a professional, organised, and election-winning force reflects this mission. With over 200,000 members, polling above 27% nationally, and with significant by-election successes, Reform UK is the party of real change.
“Our growing support is a clear reminder: the British people demand a government that works for them, not against them."
Find Out More...
Council wards are up for grabs in Wales, Scotland, the West Midlands, London and the South East of England, all areas Reform has been polling in strongly in recent weeks.
Council elections were thrust into the limelight last week by Farage and Reform after Labour Deputy PM Angela Rayner allowed nine councils to cancel their elections in May.
The ‘disruptor’ party had been threatening to win scores of seats in areas like Kent, Thurrock and Essex, but the cancellations will mean Conservative and Labour incumbents are safe for at least another year.
Farage accused the two establishment parties of ‘collusion’ and a ‘plot to stop people voting for Reform’, adding that the Tories were ‘running scared’.
However, this week's elections are going ahead and if national polls are anything to go by, the mainstream parties are in for a rough ride.
A scan of latest national polls reveals Reform to be consistently polling neck and neck with Labour. On Sunday, Opinium Research put them on 26 per cent, one behind Labour and four ahead of the Tories.
Last week, FindOutNow put Farage’s army on 29 per cent, way ahead of Labour on 25 per cent and the Conservatives on 18 per cent, 11 points behind.
Where are the elections and how likely are Reform wins?
While polling is unavailable for individual council wards, GB News has analysed a sophisticated poll aggregating model that shows how each Westminster constituency would vote based on current opinion.
The Nowcast model, which aggregates nationwide polls and weights them for recency and historic pollster accuracy, has projected Labour’s majority to be decimated if an election was held tomorrow, with scores of seats heading to the Tories, Reform and SNP.
By placing each council ward in its constituency, GB News has ranked the seven council elections in order of Reform’s chances of a win.
Trevethin & Penygarn (Torfaen, Wales)
Reform’s best chance of inflicting defeat on Labour comes in Torfaen in south east Wales.
This will be the most interesting election result to see as the ward would appear to be a safe Labour seat.
Not only did Labour win the ward with a resounding 76 per cent of the vote last time out, but it also falls within the Torfaen Westminster constituency which has been Labour since its creation in 1983.
However, Wales’ devolved government, which has been Labour controlled since its foundation in 1999, has been unable to stop the Welsh NHS from recording the worst waiting lists in Britain while educational outcomes for Welsh children are also the lowest of the home nations.
As a result, Welsh voters appear to be turning to Reform, not the Tories, and Farage’s party has been making huge gains in working class Welsh areas.
Indeed, the Nowcast model shows Reform breathing down Labour’s neck in Torfaen, just five per cent behind.
Farage’s party also benefit from the Conservatives not standing a candidate in the ward, though there are two independents.
Haverfordwest Prendergast (Pembrokeshire, Wales)
The first opportunity for Reform this week comes in the far south west of Wales in Haverfordwest where voters in Prendergast will be heading to the polls on Tuesday night.
In 2022, the Tories triumphed in a two-horse race with Labour, winning in a 59/41 split.
Haverfordwest falls within the Westminster seat of Mid and South Pembrokeshire, a swing seat that is currently a Labour marginal.
However, the Nowcast model is currently projecting Labour to lose the seat to the Conservatives, but it is a tight three horse race with Reform a very close third place.
Manor (Stevenage, East England)
The ward of Manor in Stevenage returned a Liberal Democrat councillor safely in 2024, but Reform is in with a chance of an upset here.
Manor falls within the Westminster ward of Stevenage which comfortably voted Labour in July 2024 but is now projecting a very slim Labour majority as Reform whittle down the lead.
Farage’s party are roughly five percentage points behind on the Nowcast model, so it may come down the strength of the Lib Dem councillor on the night.
Warwick All Saints & Woodloes (Warwick, West Midlands)
Another interesting battle is shaping up in the Warwick ward of Warwick All Saints & Woodloes, another Labour defence.
Starmer’s party beat the Conservatives in a close contest in 2023, but Reform has been polling strongly in the area and will certainly have poached much of the Tory vote.
It still looks a tough ask for Reform to overturn Labour and it will all come down to how many Tory voters have abandoned their former party.
Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East (New Forest, South England)
A relatively tough challenge for Reform comes in Hampshire’s New Forest where the Green Party is defending a tightly contested ward.
The Conservatives canvassed 24 per cent of the vote last time out in 2023, indicating a relatively small amount of right-wing sentiment.
The ward falls within the New Forest West constituency, a traditionally safe Conservative seat but one that saw Tory incumbent Desmond Swayne’s majority reduced from 24,000 to 5,000 at the last election.
The Nowcast model shows the seat returning to its Tory roots, but it is Reform who are hoovering up the most support with their vote up nine per cent.
However, with a strong Green party approach to local elections, it may be the environmental party who end up winning at dissatisfied voters who are thinking about voting Reform may not be willing to take the jump yet.
Burnt Oak (Barnet, London)
One of the tougher asks for Reform this week comes in the north west London ward of Burnt Oak.
Labour is defending the seat after a convincing win in 2022. Starmer’s party also won the Westminster seat of Hendon, albeit by the smallest majority of the entire July General Election of 15 votes.
That miniscule majority has already been wiped out according to the Nowcast model which shows the seat swinging back to the Conservatives with Reform a distant third.
Kirkintilloch East & North & Twechar (East Dunbartonshire, Scotland)
Reform’s only chance north of the border comes in East Dunbartonshire but it’s a big ask with candidates from Labour, the Conservatives, Reform, Lib Dems, Green and SNP all standing.
The ward was won by the SNP in 2022, and according to Westminster projections for the two seats the ward straddles (Mid Dunbartonshire and Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch) it looks set to stay that way.
The challenge will come from the Lib Dems who are projected to win Mid Dunbartonshire comfortably.
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It comes as YouGov’s latest national poll- which came out this morning- gave Reform a national lead in consecutive polls for the first time ever.
It put Farage’s party on 26 per cent nationally, with Labour on 25 per cent and the Tories floundering on 21 per cent.
A Reform spokesperson said: “The British people have been let down by the empty promises and failures of both Labour and the Conservatives.
“Fourteen years of Conservative rule have left the country poorer, worsened illegal immigration, and deepened divisions.
"Britons are tired of a two-party system where party politics and self-interest come before the needs of the people. Reform UK is breaking this cycle, standing for small businesses, farming families, lower taxes, prosperity, and British freedoms.
“Our remarkable transformation into a professional, organised, and election-winning force reflects this mission. With over 200,000 members, polling above 27% nationally, and with significant by-election successes, Reform UK is the party of real change.
“Our growing support is a clear reminder: the British people demand a government that works for them, not against them."
Find Out More...