Georgia Pearce
Guest Reporter
A leading pollster who accurately predicted Donald Trump's presidential victory has revealed why other polling companies got it wrong.
James Johnson, of JL Partners, explained that many pollsters underestimated Trump's core voter base.
Speaking to GB News, Johnson said: "The reason most pollsters got this wrong is the same reason they did in 2016 and 2020."
The Republican nominee was confirmed as the winner in the US presidential race against Kamala Harris on Wednesday morning, meaning he will be returning to the White House for his second term in January.
Johnson highlighted how other companies failed to properly account for Trump voters who typically have no college education and live in rural areas.
These supporters were also less likely to participate in traditional polling methods, Johnson explained.
Johnson said his company used a distinctive mixed-method approach to capture a broader spectrum of voters.
"We used a combination of live calls to cell phones, on landlines, also SMS to web, so texts, and also in-app game polling," he told GB News.
The pollster explained how they reached voters through mobile gaming applications.
"If you're playing a game on your phone, you get a notification, do you want to win 50,000 in game points, complete this short survey," he said.
This innovative approach helped them reach people who wouldn't typically respond to traditional polling methods.
Their strategy contrasted with other polling companies that relied solely on phone calls or online surveys.
These single-mode approaches, Johnson argued, tended to bias towards certain groups who were more likely to be politically engaged.
Johnson's methodology also stood out for its unique approach to non-voters and extensive field research.
"We had a lot of non-voters in our sample, people who didn't vote in the past. We had one of the highest proportions of that of all pollsters," he explained.
While other polling companies reduced these numbers, JL Partners maintained them in their data.
This decision was backed by their ground-level research in swing states.
"We were talking to those voters over and over again, out in the field, in the swing states, and that real contact with Americans allowed us to verify our model," Johnson said.
The approach proved successful, with Johnson noting: "We stuck with the data and we got it right."
Johnson also highlighted a significant shift in voting patterns along racial lines during this election.
His research revealed many voters were hesitant to openly declare their support for Trump.
"They didn't want to say they were voting Trump. They didn't want their neighbours to know," Johnson explained.
The pollster noted a crucial factor that many media outlets overlooked.
"They also just didn't buy into Kamala Harris and I think that's a really important thing that big chunks of the media missed," he said.
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James Johnson, of JL Partners, explained that many pollsters underestimated Trump's core voter base.
Speaking to GB News, Johnson said: "The reason most pollsters got this wrong is the same reason they did in 2016 and 2020."
The Republican nominee was confirmed as the winner in the US presidential race against Kamala Harris on Wednesday morning, meaning he will be returning to the White House for his second term in January.
Johnson highlighted how other companies failed to properly account for Trump voters who typically have no college education and live in rural areas.
These supporters were also less likely to participate in traditional polling methods, Johnson explained.
Johnson said his company used a distinctive mixed-method approach to capture a broader spectrum of voters.
"We used a combination of live calls to cell phones, on landlines, also SMS to web, so texts, and also in-app game polling," he told GB News.
The pollster explained how they reached voters through mobile gaming applications.
"If you're playing a game on your phone, you get a notification, do you want to win 50,000 in game points, complete this short survey," he said.
This innovative approach helped them reach people who wouldn't typically respond to traditional polling methods.
Their strategy contrasted with other polling companies that relied solely on phone calls or online surveys.
These single-mode approaches, Johnson argued, tended to bias towards certain groups who were more likely to be politically engaged.
Johnson's methodology also stood out for its unique approach to non-voters and extensive field research.
"We had a lot of non-voters in our sample, people who didn't vote in the past. We had one of the highest proportions of that of all pollsters," he explained.
While other polling companies reduced these numbers, JL Partners maintained them in their data.
This decision was backed by their ground-level research in swing states.
"We were talking to those voters over and over again, out in the field, in the swing states, and that real contact with Americans allowed us to verify our model," Johnson said.
The approach proved successful, with Johnson noting: "We stuck with the data and we got it right."
Johnson also highlighted a significant shift in voting patterns along racial lines during this election.
His research revealed many voters were hesitant to openly declare their support for Trump.
"They didn't want to say they were voting Trump. They didn't want their neighbours to know," Johnson explained.
The pollster noted a crucial factor that many media outlets overlooked.
"They also just didn't buy into Kamala Harris and I think that's a really important thing that big chunks of the media missed," he said.
Find Out More...