Leading polling expert Sir John Curtice has warned that Reform UK now faces a "challenge" to transform itself into a "regular political party with activists across the country".
Nigel Farage's party continues to surge in the polls and secure electoral victories.
Reform UK secured a decisive victory in the Bedingfield ward in Breckland, Norfolk, winning 54.3 per cent of the vote in a recent council by-election.
The result comes in Liz Truss's former constituency of South West Norfolk, an area traditionally considered a Conservative heartland.
Speaking to GB News, Curtice said: "So it's perfectly clear that Reform has been making further advances. The Conservatives are now fairly clearly in third place on average in the polls.
"The more difficult part is to figure out what this would mean in terms of seats if we were to see this kind of outcome.
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"Now, Electoral Calculus is anticipating the geography of Reform's support because under our first-past-the-post system, it's the geographical distribution of your support that matters which is going to work to their advantage.
"From other things that Electoral Calculus has done, they believe the rise of Reform and the fall in Labour support is particularly marked in areas where Labour currently holds the MP.
"Therefore, the electoral system is likely to start working in Reform's favour."
He added: "It's perfectly clear now that the challenge for Reform now is to turn itself into a regular political party with activists across the country.
"Indeed, I think it's the case that in the last few days, Reform has actually changed its status from being a limited company (which it had been until now) to a registered political party.
"The first real test, of course, will come in the limited set of local elections on May 1st in England. We’ll be looking first to see if Reform contests nearly all the seats that are being contested.
"Have they got the activists out? Then we’ll be looking to see how they perform in these elections. The council elections are mostly in areas where the Conservatives traditionally do well.
"These are seats that the Conservatives did well in the last time they were contested, which was during the Hartlepool by-election. So, it's probably going to be a story of Reform gaining from the Conservatives."
A bombshell poll by Electoral Calculus has placed Reform UK at 25.8 per cent nationally, ahead of Labour on 24.7 per cent and the Conservatives on 21.9 per cent.
The projection suggests Reform could win 192 seats in a general election, with Labour falling to 178 seats and the Conservatives trailing with 142.
This represents the first time Reform has topped both vote share and projected seat count in a major poll.
Find Out More...
Nigel Farage's party continues to surge in the polls and secure electoral victories.
Reform UK secured a decisive victory in the Bedingfield ward in Breckland, Norfolk, winning 54.3 per cent of the vote in a recent council by-election.
The result comes in Liz Truss's former constituency of South West Norfolk, an area traditionally considered a Conservative heartland.
Speaking to GB News, Curtice said: "So it's perfectly clear that Reform has been making further advances. The Conservatives are now fairly clearly in third place on average in the polls.
"The more difficult part is to figure out what this would mean in terms of seats if we were to see this kind of outcome.
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"Now, Electoral Calculus is anticipating the geography of Reform's support because under our first-past-the-post system, it's the geographical distribution of your support that matters which is going to work to their advantage.
"From other things that Electoral Calculus has done, they believe the rise of Reform and the fall in Labour support is particularly marked in areas where Labour currently holds the MP.
"Therefore, the electoral system is likely to start working in Reform's favour."
He added: "It's perfectly clear now that the challenge for Reform now is to turn itself into a regular political party with activists across the country.
"Indeed, I think it's the case that in the last few days, Reform has actually changed its status from being a limited company (which it had been until now) to a registered political party.
"The first real test, of course, will come in the limited set of local elections on May 1st in England. We’ll be looking first to see if Reform contests nearly all the seats that are being contested.
"Have they got the activists out? Then we’ll be looking to see how they perform in these elections. The council elections are mostly in areas where the Conservatives traditionally do well.
"These are seats that the Conservatives did well in the last time they were contested, which was during the Hartlepool by-election. So, it's probably going to be a story of Reform gaining from the Conservatives."
A bombshell poll by Electoral Calculus has placed Reform UK at 25.8 per cent nationally, ahead of Labour on 24.7 per cent and the Conservatives on 21.9 per cent.
The projection suggests Reform could win 192 seats in a general election, with Labour falling to 178 seats and the Conservatives trailing with 142.
This represents the first time Reform has topped both vote share and projected seat count in a major poll.
Find Out More...