Reform UK would win May’s local elections outright if Angela Rayner had not cancelled several ballots, shocking polling has suggested.
Respected pollsters Electoral Calculus polled thousands of voters in areas where the elections are going ahead, and also where they have been cancelled.
The research found that of the 32 authorities originally up for grabs, Reform UK would have won 12, the Tories 11 and the Lib Dems eight.
They are Derbyshire, Doncaster, Durham, Kent, Lancashire, Northumberland, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire, Suffolk, Thurrock, Essex and Norfolk.
However, Angela Rayner has allowed nine authorities to delay their elections as Labour look to reform local government.
Adjusting for delays, Reform is set to win eight authorities (down four), meaning the Tories would win the most authorities with 10 (down one).
The four councils Reform were projected to win but have had their elections delayed are Suffolk, Thurrock, Essex and Norfolk.
By seperating the polling for areas where elections are and aren’t going ahead, we see how Reform UK is being hit harder by the cancellations than any other party.
Nigel Farage’s party was projected to win 223 councillors in the nine authorities where elections have been delayed, compared to the Tories’ 140 and the Lib Dems’ 131.
Most of these would have been at the expense of the Conservatives who enjoyed an excellent set of results last time local elections occurred in 2021 thanks to Boris Johnson popularity.
Even with the delays ‘robbing’ Reform of four councils and many councillors, if these results were to play out it would be a major coup for the right-wing party and the first real proof of electoral success since only gaining five MPs in July 2024.
Since July, Reform has won just five per cent of the 212 council by elections, despite national polls handing them a lead UK wide.
The research also appears to suggest Reform’s high-profile row between Rupert Lowe and Nigel Farage has not dented Reform voters belief in their new party.
The delays in politically fertile territory for Reform have prompted leader Nigel Farage to slam the Labour and Tories for ‘denying democracy’.
Of the nine authorities granted delays, six are Tory controlled, one is Labour and two have no overall control.
Mr Farage said: “This is political cowardice, a denial of democracy and a disgrace. If reorganisation takes three years, the elections should go ahead. Who wants this?”
Former Reform MP Rupert Lowe also hit out at the delays, referencing the founding fathers’ principle of ‘no taxation without representation’.
In response, thousands of voters threatened to withhold their council tax unless they were allowed to vote.
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Delays to elections were made more controversial by news the vast majority of councils in England are raising council tax bills by the legal limit of 4.99 per cent for 2025/26.
It means millions of residents are set to pay hundreds more per year in council tax as cash-strapped authorities struggle to balance the books.
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: "Our local election poll shows that the Conservatives are likely to make significant losses compared with their strong performance back in 2021.
“Reform UK look like the main gainers as they could take control of eight councils to gain their first real power-base in local government.
“But the large-scale delays to elections, affecting over five and a half million voters, will soften the scale of Conservative losses and reduce Reform's gains."
Reform UK was approached for comment.
Find Out More...
Respected pollsters Electoral Calculus polled thousands of voters in areas where the elections are going ahead, and also where they have been cancelled.
The research found that of the 32 authorities originally up for grabs, Reform UK would have won 12, the Tories 11 and the Lib Dems eight.
They are Derbyshire, Doncaster, Durham, Kent, Lancashire, Northumberland, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire, Suffolk, Thurrock, Essex and Norfolk.
However, Angela Rayner has allowed nine authorities to delay their elections as Labour look to reform local government.
Adjusting for delays, Reform is set to win eight authorities (down four), meaning the Tories would win the most authorities with 10 (down one).
The four councils Reform were projected to win but have had their elections delayed are Suffolk, Thurrock, Essex and Norfolk.
EXPLORE: Local election projections
EXPLORE: Local election projections
By seperating the polling for areas where elections are and aren’t going ahead, we see how Reform UK is being hit harder by the cancellations than any other party.
Nigel Farage’s party was projected to win 223 councillors in the nine authorities where elections have been delayed, compared to the Tories’ 140 and the Lib Dems’ 131.
Most of these would have been at the expense of the Conservatives who enjoyed an excellent set of results last time local elections occurred in 2021 thanks to Boris Johnson popularity.
Even with the delays ‘robbing’ Reform of four councils and many councillors, if these results were to play out it would be a major coup for the right-wing party and the first real proof of electoral success since only gaining five MPs in July 2024.
Since July, Reform has won just five per cent of the 212 council by elections, despite national polls handing them a lead UK wide.
The research also appears to suggest Reform’s high-profile row between Rupert Lowe and Nigel Farage has not dented Reform voters belief in their new party.
The delays in politically fertile territory for Reform have prompted leader Nigel Farage to slam the Labour and Tories for ‘denying democracy’.
Of the nine authorities granted delays, six are Tory controlled, one is Labour and two have no overall control.
Mr Farage said: “This is political cowardice, a denial of democracy and a disgrace. If reorganisation takes three years, the elections should go ahead. Who wants this?”
Former Reform MP Rupert Lowe also hit out at the delays, referencing the founding fathers’ principle of ‘no taxation without representation’.
In response, thousands of voters threatened to withhold their council tax unless they were allowed to vote.
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Delays to elections were made more controversial by news the vast majority of councils in England are raising council tax bills by the legal limit of 4.99 per cent for 2025/26.
It means millions of residents are set to pay hundreds more per year in council tax as cash-strapped authorities struggle to balance the books.
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: "Our local election poll shows that the Conservatives are likely to make significant losses compared with their strong performance back in 2021.
“Reform UK look like the main gainers as they could take control of eight councils to gain their first real power-base in local government.
“But the large-scale delays to elections, affecting over five and a half million voters, will soften the scale of Conservative losses and reduce Reform's gains."
Reform UK was approached for comment.
Find Out More...