News Labour's shift in stance on ECHR could be an attempt to neutralise Reform UK, says Matthew Goodwin

Matthew Goodwin

Guest Reporter
For years, Keir Starmer has built his career on a firm commitment to human rights law. He has repeatedly defended the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and even as Prime Minister, he has vowed that Britain will never, ever leave the ECHR.

But now, with Nigel Farage and Reform UK gaining ground in the polls, averaging 26 per cent of the vote in the latest surveys, Keir Starmer's Government is showing signs of potentially shifting its stance on the ECHR.



This raises the question: is this a genuine strategic move to counter Reform's appeal, or does Keir Starmer believe what we're reading in the newspapers today?

Labour is not proposing to leave the ECHR outright, as Reform has called for, but there are clearly signs of internal debate about how the ECHR applies, particularly Article 8—the right to family life.


Matthew Goodwin

On this show, we've often discussed how this right to family life has been used to challenge the deportation of foreign criminals and illegal migrants.

Some in government suggest that British courts may be interpreting these provisions too rigidly, opening the door for potential tweaks to the laws or revised guidance to limit what they call the exploitation of the system.

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Indeed, just today, we learned of yet another shocking case within Britain's immigration system, which I also shared on X. A Pakistani man convicted of sexually assaulting a woman was allowed to remain in the UK after claiming he was gay, despite providing little evidence to support his claim.

Having lived in the country illegally for over a decade, he applied for asylum shortly after his conviction, arguing that deportation would put him at risk if returned to Pakistan. The Home Office initially rejected his claims, but due to a legal oversight, the case went unchallenged in court, allowing him to stay.

He is now set for a retrial. With over 34,000 cases currently backlogged, many involving similar human rights claims, the government faces mounting pressure to tighten asylum rules. The timing is telling: Nigel Farage and Reform have built significant momentum in the polls.

They are now ahead of the Conservatives, consistently averaging 26 per cent of the vote, with 220,000 party members. Many people are deeply frustrated with the current direction of immigration and asylum policy.



Keir Starmer and Labour are now seeing this shift, including in many Labour heartlands, such as the upcoming by-election in Runcorn in northern England.

A poll today suggests Reform is on course to win that by-election. So, is Keir Starmer now going to change his view on the ECHR?

This could, of course, spark a considerable backlash from within the Labour Party, many of whom will see this as further evidence that Keir Starmer is drifting to the right rather than to the left.


Keir Starmer


Indeed, Labour's left-wing flank is already uneasy about cuts to welfare, cuts to foreign aid, and further concessions on human rights laws, which could deepen those divisions.

But some in Keir Starmer's circle may see this as a necessary political calculation, much like how, in 2021, Keir Starmer shifted his approach after a poor showing at the Hartlepool by-election.

So, is Labour genuinely rethinking its position on the ECHR, or is this an attempt to neutralize Reform's growing influence?

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