Jack Walters
Guest Reporter
Nigel Farage could snatch up to 95 seats after Reform UK leapfrogged Labour into second place, a shock new opinion poll has revealed.
The populist party, which only returned five MPs in the 2024 General Election, could receive an exponential 10-point boost to edge closer to Farage’s target of returning hundreds of Reformers to the House of Commons.
Find Out Now’s latest opinion poll showed Reform UK receiving 24 per cent of the vote, one-point ahead of Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.
Kemi Badenoch’s Tories emerged as the largest party, obtaining support from 26 per cent of voters in a modest boost compared to July 4.
Support for the Liberal Democrats and Greens remains effectively unchanged, with the two progressive parties receiving 11 per cent and nine per cent respectively.
Such a situation would likely see Reform UK win 95 seats, with Labour hemorrhaging 205 MPs to collapse to just 207.
The Tories would likely receive a 98 seat boost, taking the Tory rump to a far more respectable 219, Electoral Calculus's seat predictor has revealed.
The Liberal Democrats would expect to suffer slightly from a Tory revival, with Sir Ed Davey’s party likely to lose five Blue Wall seats.
However, the Green Party could also increase its Commons contingent from four to six MPs.
Reform UK’s gains stretch from Dover & Deal to Dudley and Gravesham to Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes, even ending Labour’s century-long grip on Wales with 12 out of 32 seats predicted to swing towards the populist party.
The rebranded Brexit Party would likely snatch 92 seats from Labour, with three gains coming at the expense of the Tories.
A number of top Labour MPs could suffer defeat at the hands of Reform UK, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS:
North East:
Easington, Washington & Gateshead South, Houghton & Sunderland South, South Shields, Sunderland Central, Durham North, Hartlepool, Stockton North, and Bishop Auckland.
North West:
Makerfield, Leigh & Atherton, Blackpool South, Ashton-under-Lyne, Warrington North, Bolton South & Walkden, Oldham West, Chadderton & Royton, Heywood & Middleton North, Preston, Oldham East & Saddleworth, Bolton North East, Rossendale & Darwen, Burnley, Carlisle, and Blackpool North & Fleetwood.
Yorkshire & Humberside:
Barnsley North, Barnsley South, Rawmarsh & Conisbrough, Hull East, Normanton & Hemsworth, Pontefract, Castleford & Knottingley, Bradford South, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes, Halifax, Spen Valley, and Scarborough & Whitby.
Wales:
Rhondda & Ogmore, Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare, Neath & Swansea East, Pontypridd, Caerphilly, Torfaen, Newport West & Islwyn, Alyn & Deeside, Bridgend, Llanelli, Bangor Aberconwy, and Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr.
West Midlands:
Birmingham Erdington, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Telford, Birmingham Hodge Hill & Solihull, Walsall & Bloxwich, Wolverhampton North East, Birmingham Northfield, Stoke-on-Trent North, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Halesowen, Tipton & Wednesbury, Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Dudley, Warwickshire North & Bedworth, and Tamworth.
East Midlands:
Derby South, Bolsover, Erewash, Bassetlaw, Wellingborough & Rushden, Amber Valley, and Sherwood Forest.
East of England:
Thurrock, Lowestoft, Norfolk South West, and Basildon & Billericay.
South West of England:
Camborne & Redruth and Plymouth Moor View.
London:
Dagenham & Rainham and Hornchurch & Upminster.
South East of England:
Dover & Deal, Thanet East, Southampton Itchen, Gillingham & Rainham, Folkestone & Hythe, Rochester & Strood, Chatham & Aylesford, Ashford, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, and Havant.
Despite making significant gains, Reform UK would fall well-short of entering power.
Even uniting the right would fail to reach 326 seats, with Tory, Reform UK and Unionist MPs in Northern Ireland only equalling 321.
A progressive alliance of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Green Party and Nationalist MPs would also fall well-short, reaching just 309.
However, it is clear Farage is hopeful that today’s shock poll is just the beginning of Reform UK’s revolution.
Speaking at the Spectator’s annual awards, earlier this week, the Clacton MP said: "I've got a bit of a shock for you. If you think that I - and four other people, the newcomers into Parliament this year was a shock - I'm afraid, I'm really, very, very sorry, but in the next election in 2029 or before, there will be hundreds of newcomers under the Reform UK label.
"We are about to witness a political revolution, the likes of which we have not seen since Labour after the First World War."
Find Out More...
The populist party, which only returned five MPs in the 2024 General Election, could receive an exponential 10-point boost to edge closer to Farage’s target of returning hundreds of Reformers to the House of Commons.
Find Out Now’s latest opinion poll showed Reform UK receiving 24 per cent of the vote, one-point ahead of Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.
Kemi Badenoch’s Tories emerged as the largest party, obtaining support from 26 per cent of voters in a modest boost compared to July 4.
Support for the Liberal Democrats and Greens remains effectively unchanged, with the two progressive parties receiving 11 per cent and nine per cent respectively.
Such a situation would likely see Reform UK win 95 seats, with Labour hemorrhaging 205 MPs to collapse to just 207.
The Tories would likely receive a 98 seat boost, taking the Tory rump to a far more respectable 219, Electoral Calculus's seat predictor has revealed.
The Liberal Democrats would expect to suffer slightly from a Tory revival, with Sir Ed Davey’s party likely to lose five Blue Wall seats.
However, the Green Party could also increase its Commons contingent from four to six MPs.
Reform UK’s gains stretch from Dover & Deal to Dudley and Gravesham to Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes, even ending Labour’s century-long grip on Wales with 12 out of 32 seats predicted to swing towards the populist party.
The rebranded Brexit Party would likely snatch 92 seats from Labour, with three gains coming at the expense of the Tories.
A number of top Labour MPs could suffer defeat at the hands of Reform UK, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS:
- Starmer questioned on immigration after EXCLUDING issue in six 'milestone missions'
- 'No plan B': Essex farmers reveal MASSIVE impact of Starmer's tax raid as Reform MP joins fight
- Starmer grilled by GB News over immigration after he DODGES issue in six 'milestone missions'
North East:
Easington, Washington & Gateshead South, Houghton & Sunderland South, South Shields, Sunderland Central, Durham North, Hartlepool, Stockton North, and Bishop Auckland.
North West:
Makerfield, Leigh & Atherton, Blackpool South, Ashton-under-Lyne, Warrington North, Bolton South & Walkden, Oldham West, Chadderton & Royton, Heywood & Middleton North, Preston, Oldham East & Saddleworth, Bolton North East, Rossendale & Darwen, Burnley, Carlisle, and Blackpool North & Fleetwood.
Yorkshire & Humberside:
Barnsley North, Barnsley South, Rawmarsh & Conisbrough, Hull East, Normanton & Hemsworth, Pontefract, Castleford & Knottingley, Bradford South, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes, Halifax, Spen Valley, and Scarborough & Whitby.
Wales:
Rhondda & Ogmore, Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare, Neath & Swansea East, Pontypridd, Caerphilly, Torfaen, Newport West & Islwyn, Alyn & Deeside, Bridgend, Llanelli, Bangor Aberconwy, and Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr.
West Midlands:
Birmingham Erdington, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Telford, Birmingham Hodge Hill & Solihull, Walsall & Bloxwich, Wolverhampton North East, Birmingham Northfield, Stoke-on-Trent North, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Halesowen, Tipton & Wednesbury, Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Dudley, Warwickshire North & Bedworth, and Tamworth.
East Midlands:
Derby South, Bolsover, Erewash, Bassetlaw, Wellingborough & Rushden, Amber Valley, and Sherwood Forest.
East of England:
Thurrock, Lowestoft, Norfolk South West, and Basildon & Billericay.
South West of England:
Camborne & Redruth and Plymouth Moor View.
London:
Dagenham & Rainham and Hornchurch & Upminster.
South East of England:
Dover & Deal, Thanet East, Southampton Itchen, Gillingham & Rainham, Folkestone & Hythe, Rochester & Strood, Chatham & Aylesford, Ashford, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, and Havant.
Despite making significant gains, Reform UK would fall well-short of entering power.
Even uniting the right would fail to reach 326 seats, with Tory, Reform UK and Unionist MPs in Northern Ireland only equalling 321.
A progressive alliance of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Green Party and Nationalist MPs would also fall well-short, reaching just 309.
However, it is clear Farage is hopeful that today’s shock poll is just the beginning of Reform UK’s revolution.
Speaking at the Spectator’s annual awards, earlier this week, the Clacton MP said: "I've got a bit of a shock for you. If you think that I - and four other people, the newcomers into Parliament this year was a shock - I'm afraid, I'm really, very, very sorry, but in the next election in 2029 or before, there will be hundreds of newcomers under the Reform UK label.
"We are about to witness a political revolution, the likes of which we have not seen since Labour after the First World War."
Find Out More...