A tabloid headline writers’ dream, the first budget of a new Government on October 30, the day before Halloween.
Yet it won’t be the “fright night” or “Nightmare on Downing Street” headlines which will convince Rachel Reeves it was the wrong date to choose.
Nor will it be the inevitable images of her on a broomstick or wearing a witch’s hat.
It will be the impact of having left it nearly four months to get the red Budget Box out which has produced the real horror show.
When the Budget date was set it probably seemed a great wheeze, holding it on the last day possible before the Conservative Party elects a new leader. There would be Rishi Sunak in the public eye again, replying to a triumphant Labour Party’s first budget and, in Labour’s mind, reminding the public of what went before.
Instead, the decision to leave it till October saw the Labour Party hold a conference where virtually every discussion was tempered by “I can’t speculate on what the Chancellor will decide” or “It’s above my pay grade to set the policy on that”.
Hardly the image of a new Government with a big mandate confidently driving forward its agenda. Inevitable speculation about everything from capital gains tax increases, reductions in inheritance tax allowances and changes to tax-free limits on pensions does not go unnoticed.
It spooks those who will face the looming spectre of such changes into making moves to avoid the impact of them on their own finances. Be it landlords selling up, share deals brought forward, assets transferred to the next generation or businesses relocating activity overseas.
When they know tax rises are coming, the most mobile (and wealthiest) taxpayers can act quickly, leaving the ordinary worker and business owner to take the hit instead.
Rachel Reeve’s first budget will therefore include some additional tax rises and spending cuts simply because she let tax rise speculation run since July, meaning some measures will raise less than planned.
This effect then had a double whammy when combined with ill-judged moves over the summer to talk the economy down and be negative, frightening more into thinking now was the time to magic their assets abroad.
Then there is the political impact. The best time to get MPs to back something controversial is just after they are first elected, before the euphoria dies down, when goodwill for the leadership is at its highest.
Three months of being attacked for winter fuel allowance cuts, defending Keir’s latest freebies and each Thursday bringing Conservative gains in local by-elections, will have eroded this goodwill.
The delay also provides more time for the inevitable internal rows as pledges made from the comfort of opposition meet the reality of delivering them in Government.
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Delaying the budget also means key constituency projects like new hospitals or levelling up funding are “under review”.
Providing plenty of scope for opposition parties to launch local campaigns to push the Government into making a favourable decision on a project.
Positive decisions the Chancellor would have made anyway will now look like the result of these efforts. Finally, the delay has helped the Conservative Party.
Even his most ardent critic agrees Rishi Sunak is at his strongest when talking finance. He will be well placed to immediately launch a forensic assault on Rachel Reeves’ Budget, all whilst knowing it will be his replacement who will have to outline what the party would do instead.
The Halloween Budget date has become a trick, not a treat, for the Chancellor
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