Reform UK is eyeing three electoral upsets tomorrow as Nigel Farage looks to fire a warning shot across the establishment parties’ bows ahead of the May elections.
The ‘disruptor party’ is standing in three council by-elections, important bell-weather events that will indicate how the parties are performing ahead of imminent local elections.
Elections for local authorities were thrust into the limelight this year by Nigel Farage after Angela Rayner delayed elections for nine councils, many of which polling showed Reform was set to win.
The Reform leader called it's a ‘denial of democracy’ and accused the Tories and Labour of ‘collusion to stop Reform’.
He took particular aim at the Conservatives who, thanks to the last round of elections happening during peak Boris Johnson popularity, are defending the vast majority of councils, accusing them of ‘running scared’.
However, the by-elections tomorrow are going ahead. While polling is unavailable for individual wards, we can look at polling for the wider Westminster constituency to see how the parties are performing, as well as historical trends.
The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent UK wide polling and weights it for historic pollster accuracy and recency, shows Reform is in with a real chance of causing upsets.
Maldon North – Maldon (Essex)
Reform’s best chance comes in the ward of Maldon North near Maldon in Essex, near Farage’s Clacton constituency.
The Westminster seat of Maldon has been a true-blue area, voting a Conservative member into power since 1955.
There are two seats in the ward which are split between the Lib Dems and Tories, but the Nowcast model shows the wider area is swinging to Reform.
Farage’s party is polling 35.2 per cent in Maldon, just one per cent behind the Conservatives’ 36.2 per cent.
Penllergaer – Swansea
Another prime opportunity for Reform comes in the west Wales ward of Penllergaer near Swansea.
The anti-immigration party has been consistently polling as the biggest party in Wales in what is a break with 114-years of Labour dominance.
Farage’s party recently won the Trevethin and Penygarn seat on Labour-dominated Torfaen council in the South Wales Valleys, deep Labour areas.
The Nowcast model indicates Reform is breathing down the neck of Labour in the wider seat of Gower.
It indicates Labour’s Tonia Antoniazzi would hold on with 35 per cent of the vote if an election was held tomorrow, though Reform would secure second with 25 per cent.
This may be a misleading projection too as the Gower Westminster ward includes parts of Swansea, a deep Labour zone, where Penllergaer is not located.
To the west and east, the seats of Llanelli and Neath and Swansea East are both projected to go to Reform, indicating strong support for Farage in west Wales.
Mayfield – Redbridge (London)
Reform’s most difficult contest comes in northeast London in the Mayfield ward of Redbridge.
London is a bastion of Labour support, and this ward is no different, electing a Labour candidate with 71 per cent of the vote last time out in 2022.
The ward falls within the constituency of Ilford South which the Nowcast model is projecting to remain Labour.
If an election were held tomorrow, Starmer’s party would win with 31.9 per cent of the vote, with the Tories and Reform a distant second and third respectively.
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It comes as Labour continues to be punished at council by-elections since the July General Election.
Starmer’s party has suffered a net loss of 37 seats since July, with the Tories up 24 seats.
Reform UK, for all their dominant polling and headlines, has only won 12 seats (up 12), inviting criticism that they shout the loudest but aren’t producing results.
However, defenders of Reform argue the party has only just professionalised and began from a standing start in terms of candidate recruitment, vetting, membership lists etc.
Reform will be chomping at the bit to record some more electoral victories and prove they are a force to be reckoned with to the establishment parties.
A total of 1,641 councillors will be elected in May to 23 authorities including 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities, and one metropolitan borough.
Of these 23 authorities, 15 are being defended by the Conservative Party compared to just one for Labour, whilst seven councils are under no overall control (NOC).
Of these seven, four are run by Conservative minority administrations, two by Liberal Democrats, and one by Independents.
Latest Electoral Calculus polling projects the Tories to win 548 councillors in May, an estimated net loss of 390 councillors.
It also shows Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats capitalising on Tory losses.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is tipped to win 474 councillors, scooping 25 per cent of the vote, while Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats are set to win 270 councillors and 16 per cent of the vote.
Find Out More...
The ‘disruptor party’ is standing in three council by-elections, important bell-weather events that will indicate how the parties are performing ahead of imminent local elections.
Elections for local authorities were thrust into the limelight this year by Nigel Farage after Angela Rayner delayed elections for nine councils, many of which polling showed Reform was set to win.
The Reform leader called it's a ‘denial of democracy’ and accused the Tories and Labour of ‘collusion to stop Reform’.
He took particular aim at the Conservatives who, thanks to the last round of elections happening during peak Boris Johnson popularity, are defending the vast majority of councils, accusing them of ‘running scared’.
However, the by-elections tomorrow are going ahead. While polling is unavailable for individual wards, we can look at polling for the wider Westminster constituency to see how the parties are performing, as well as historical trends.
The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent UK wide polling and weights it for historic pollster accuracy and recency, shows Reform is in with a real chance of causing upsets.
Maldon North – Maldon (Essex)
Reform’s best chance comes in the ward of Maldon North near Maldon in Essex, near Farage’s Clacton constituency.
The Westminster seat of Maldon has been a true-blue area, voting a Conservative member into power since 1955.
There are two seats in the ward which are split between the Lib Dems and Tories, but the Nowcast model shows the wider area is swinging to Reform.
Farage’s party is polling 35.2 per cent in Maldon, just one per cent behind the Conservatives’ 36.2 per cent.
Maldon projection
Penllergaer – Swansea
Another prime opportunity for Reform comes in the west Wales ward of Penllergaer near Swansea.
The anti-immigration party has been consistently polling as the biggest party in Wales in what is a break with 114-years of Labour dominance.
Farage’s party recently won the Trevethin and Penygarn seat on Labour-dominated Torfaen council in the South Wales Valleys, deep Labour areas.
The Nowcast model indicates Reform is breathing down the neck of Labour in the wider seat of Gower.
It indicates Labour’s Tonia Antoniazzi would hold on with 35 per cent of the vote if an election was held tomorrow, though Reform would secure second with 25 per cent.
This may be a misleading projection too as the Gower Westminster ward includes parts of Swansea, a deep Labour zone, where Penllergaer is not located.
To the west and east, the seats of Llanelli and Neath and Swansea East are both projected to go to Reform, indicating strong support for Farage in west Wales.
Gower projection
Mayfield – Redbridge (London)
Reform’s most difficult contest comes in northeast London in the Mayfield ward of Redbridge.
London is a bastion of Labour support, and this ward is no different, electing a Labour candidate with 71 per cent of the vote last time out in 2022.
The ward falls within the constituency of Ilford South which the Nowcast model is projecting to remain Labour.
If an election were held tomorrow, Starmer’s party would win with 31.9 per cent of the vote, with the Tories and Reform a distant second and third respectively.
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Ilford South projection
It comes as Labour continues to be punished at council by-elections since the July General Election.
Starmer’s party has suffered a net loss of 37 seats since July, with the Tories up 24 seats.
Reform UK, for all their dominant polling and headlines, has only won 12 seats (up 12), inviting criticism that they shout the loudest but aren’t producing results.
However, defenders of Reform argue the party has only just professionalised and began from a standing start in terms of candidate recruitment, vetting, membership lists etc.
Reform will be chomping at the bit to record some more electoral victories and prove they are a force to be reckoned with to the establishment parties.
A total of 1,641 councillors will be elected in May to 23 authorities including 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities, and one metropolitan borough.
Of these 23 authorities, 15 are being defended by the Conservative Party compared to just one for Labour, whilst seven councils are under no overall control (NOC).
Of these seven, four are run by Conservative minority administrations, two by Liberal Democrats, and one by Independents.
Latest Electoral Calculus polling projects the Tories to win 548 councillors in May, an estimated net loss of 390 councillors.
It also shows Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats capitalising on Tory losses.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is tipped to win 474 councillors, scooping 25 per cent of the vote, while Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats are set to win 270 councillors and 16 per cent of the vote.
Find Out More...